Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262021 210405 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.20    121.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  40.3  43.5  41.0  27.6  24.4  18.0  15.4  U  U VU VU  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  48.0  57.0  67.0  79.0  86.0  78.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  30.0  15.0  -1.0  28.0   1.0  27.0  31.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  58.0  64.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        2.2%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.2%        9.2%        6.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        3.4%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        3.4%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        2.6%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%        6.4%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        1.6%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.9%        4.1%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h       10.2%        8.3%        9.3%