Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262021 210406 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.30    119.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.4  28.5  25.9  28.9  21.9  18.5  24.2  23.3  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  64.0  34.0  27.0  73.0  72.0  26.0   7.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   5.0   4.0   2.0   7.0   1.0 -22.0 -28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        1.1%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%        7.6%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        2.3%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        2.3%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        2.3%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        4.0%        5.6%        4.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        1.1%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        7.2%        5.8%        6.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        1.5%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h       14.0%        7.1%       10.5%