Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262021 210407 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.20    116.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  27.8  24.6  19.8  17.1  16.7  15.0  22.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  27.0  44.0  73.0  72.0  47.0  38.0 -52.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  59.0  60.0  59.0  59.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  N  U  N  U  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   3.0   5.0  12.0   2.0  -3.0 -11.0  -8.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.2%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%        9.8%        5.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        3.9%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        3.9%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        3.9%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%        9.4%        5.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.4%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.3%        7.5%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.2%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.8%        5.3%        3.5%