Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262021 210407 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90    115.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  23.7  15.8   9.5  11.5  16.2  22.2  33.8  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   88.0  89.0  92.0  83.0  58.0  53.0  64.0  55.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  52.0  54.0  74.0  70.0  34.0 -16.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  63.0  62.0  59.0  61.0  55.0  51.0  53.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   5.0   0.0  -5.0  -7.0   6.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        3.4%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h       17.0%       31.7%       24.3%
 30kt / 24h       10.8%       15.3%       13.1%
 35kt / 24h        4.1%       15.3%        9.7%
 40kt / 24h        4.1%       15.3%        9.7%
 45kt / 36h       25.2%       34.6%       29.9%
 55kt / 36h       15.0%       14.1%       14.5%
 55kt / 48h       40.3%       31.4%       35.9%
 70kt / 48h       24.6%       15.9%       20.3%
 65kt / 72h       48.8%       24.5%       36.7%