Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262021 210407 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.60    114.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  17.3  14.3  12.5  20.1  20.1  25.1  36.1  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  98.0  90.0  83.0  90.0  72.0  40.0  24.0  N  F  F  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  58.0  60.0  54.0  51.0  50.0  49.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0 -10.0  -9.0  -9.0 -38.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        2.3%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        7.8%       23.6%       15.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.1%       13.9%        9.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%       13.9%        8.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%       13.9%        8.0%
 45kt / 36h        9.3%       21.3%       15.3%
 55kt / 36h        2.9%        7.6%        5.3%
 55kt / 48h        8.4%       15.9%       12.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        6.6%        4.1%
 65kt / 72h        5.4%        9.0%        7.2%