Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262021 210408 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.90    113.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  13.4  11.8  13.8  18.9  24.7  35.4  46.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   85.0  75.0  64.0  56.0  54.0  48.0  34.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  85.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  67.0  60.0  37.0  34.0 -13.0 -16.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  68.0  69.0  65.0  60.0  54.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0  12.0  20.0  30.0  N  N  F  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.0%       15.6%       18.8%
 25kt / 24h       44.7%       56.3%       50.5%
 30kt / 24h       36.5%       48.8%       42.7%
 35kt / 24h       28.9%       48.8%       38.9%
 40kt / 24h       18.3%       48.8%       33.5%
 45kt / 36h       38.4%       45.8%       42.1%
 55kt / 36h       26.4%       26.0%       26.2%
 55kt / 48h       29.2%       30.5%       29.8%
 70kt / 48h       17.5%       15.7%       16.6%
 65kt / 72h        8.3%        7.6%        7.9%