Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262021 210408 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.00    111.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  14.8  21.2  24.1  27.4  34.6  43.1  51.9  F  F  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0  97.9  87.4  58.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  60.0  37.0  50.0  -5.0  -9.0  -5.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  65.0  60.0  50.0  46.0  49.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -9.0   1.0  -2.0  -5.0   0.0   9.0   0.0  N  F  N  N  F  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.8%       12.5%       13.1%
 25kt / 24h       19.7%       37.5%       28.6%
 30kt / 24h       16.4%       31.5%       23.9%
 35kt / 24h       16.4%       31.5%       23.9%
 40kt / 24h        7.4%       31.5%       19.5%
 45kt / 36h       10.0%       20.2%       15.1%
 55kt / 36h        4.1%        7.7%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        6.0%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.4%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%