Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262021 210408 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.40    111.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  25.0  32.1  35.9  38.6  41.7  47.3  66.5  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 107.9  88.0  38.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  41.0  29.0  30.0 -16.0  -9.0  52.0  50.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  60.0  55.0  51.0  46.0  47.0  54.0  68.0  N  N  U  U VU VU  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -16.0  -9.0   0.0  -6.0 -32.0 -76.0 -15.0  F VF  F  N  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.8%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%