Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262021 210409 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.20    108.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  18.6  18.3  14.7  28.7  37.7  54.6  81.2  N  N  F  F  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  21.0  28.0  37.0  14.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 109.3 110.0 110.0  89.4  39.8  -4.2   2.7  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  18.0  56.0  39.0  69.0  80.0  97.0 143.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  57.0  56.0  59.0  62.0  67.0  69.0  66.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -1.0   0.0  -9.0 -45.0 -82.0-129.0-129.0  F  N  N  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.3%       11.7%       12.5%
 25kt / 24h       29.5%       49.1%       39.3%
 30kt / 24h       20.2%       40.0%       30.1%
 35kt / 24h       18.7%       40.0%       29.3%
 40kt / 24h       12.8%       39.3%       26.0%
 45kt / 36h       16.8%       34.8%       25.8%
 55kt / 36h        8.0%       17.6%       12.8%
 55kt / 48h        3.6%        1.3%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        6.9%        4.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%