Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262021 210409 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.30    108.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  24.4  24.3  22.6  35.0  50.5  61.1  72.6  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.3 102.0 102.0  99.6  78.5  58.0   5.7  -2.3  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0 -14.0 -19.0  -9.0  48.0  78.0  86.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  60.0  55.0  59.0  62.0  68.0  54.0  U  U  N  U  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -7.0 -11.0 -27.0 -78.0 -62.0 -53.0  53.0  F  F  F VF VF VF VF VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.9%        5.1%        5.5%
 25kt / 24h        7.9%       19.3%       13.6%
 30kt / 24h        6.7%       13.4%       10.0%
 35kt / 24h        6.7%       13.4%       10.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%       12.2%        7.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        6.6%        4.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        2.1%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%