Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262021 210410 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.80    107.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  23.7  22.7  33.3  47.6  53.6  80.5 119.6  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  24.0  30.0  46.0   8.5   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.0 102.0 105.0 105.0  97.3  14.7  -3.0 -12.5  N  N  N  N  N VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  24.0  39.0  57.0  50.0  99.0 144.0 118.0  N  U  N  N  N  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  61.0  67.0  66.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0 -15.0 -36.0 -88.0-131.0-157.0-150.0  F  F VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.2%        4.8%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h       11.9%       23.0%       17.4%
 30kt / 24h        6.7%       15.8%       11.3%
 35kt / 24h        5.4%       15.8%       10.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%       12.6%        7.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%        5.5%        3.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%