Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262021 210410 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.50    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  23.7  29.4  34.6  39.9  66.2  96.1  96.1  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  46.0   8.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 102.0  71.2  30.7 -13.0  -2.3 -11.8 -11.8  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  19.0  39.0  33.0  61.0  89.0 150.0 150.0  U  U  N  N  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  65.0  62.0  66.0  57.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0 -24.0 -45.0 -65.0 -89.0 -43.0 -94.0 -94.0  N VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.0%        5.8%        7.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%        4.8%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        2.0%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        2.0%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons