Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262021 210411 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.20    110.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  31.8  45.8  44.3  69.8  86.5  86.0  86.0  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.5  61.0  28.8   5.2  -5.3 -14.7 -19.5 -19.5  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  38.0  39.0  67.0  88.0 112.0 137.0 137.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  48.0  49.0  54.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -35.0 -18.0-113.0 -65.0  47.0  40.0  56.0  56.0 VF VF VF VF VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        1.1%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons