Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262021 210411 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -30.50    117.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        58.3  68.0  74.6  87.2  64.4  31.2  31.2  31.2 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -3.0   2.7  -3.4  -7.7 -16.2 -19.7 -19.7 -19.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  99.0 107.0 137.0  65.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  N  F  F VF  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  63.0  56.0  53.0  56.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -97.0-108.0-171.0-190.0 -73.0 -14.0 -14.0 -14.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons