Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH262021 210412 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -33.30    121.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        65.8  69.4  84.7  87.4  45.9  36.8  35.5  39.3 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         10.5   5.0   0.3  -4.4  -8.4 -10.8 -10.9 -10.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   118.0 119.0 117.0 140.0  56.0  63.0  27.0   3.0  F  F  F VF  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  59.0  56.0  58.0  79.0  82.0  70.0  59.0  N  U  U  U  F  F  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]-171.0-199.0-232.0-146.0   7.0 191.0 168.0 340.0 VF VF VF VF  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons