Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272021 210405 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.30    104.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  29.0  33.3  33.9  33.5  24.5  36.9  31.8  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  63.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   114.0  81.0  85.0  73.0  67.0 144.0  30.0  -2.0  F  N  F  N  N VF  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  59.0  58.0  66.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   2.0  -5.0  18.0   3.0  F  N  N  N  N  F VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%        6.4%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h       21.0%       37.8%       29.4%
 30kt / 24h        8.8%       19.5%       14.1%
 35kt / 24h        4.0%       19.5%       11.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       15.1%        8.3%
 45kt / 36h       10.9%       37.1%       24.0%
 55kt / 36h        4.6%       15.7%       10.2%
 55kt / 48h       22.6%       22.9%       22.7%
 70kt / 48h       11.5%       18.1%       14.8%
 65kt / 72h       31.6%       26.4%       29.0%