Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272021 210405 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.60    104.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.6  33.3  29.7  34.4  29.7  25.8  27.4  31.0  N  U  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0  58.0  75.0  92.0  80.0  45.0  51.0  55.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  62.0  60.0  58.0  59.0  59.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -7.0   0.0   5.0  14.0  F  N  N  N  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.8%        7.6%        8.7%
 25kt / 24h       26.9%       38.3%       32.6%
 30kt / 24h       14.4%       21.6%       18.0%
 35kt / 24h        8.5%       21.6%       15.1%
 40kt / 24h        5.7%       18.3%       12.0%
 45kt / 36h       15.4%       33.3%       24.3%
 55kt / 36h        6.4%       13.5%       10.0%
 55kt / 48h       17.3%       18.3%       17.8%
 70kt / 48h        7.5%       12.2%        9.9%
 65kt / 72h       26.1%       19.7%       22.9%