Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272021 210405 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00    105.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  28.2  27.3  27.6  23.3  26.4  20.9  29.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  62.0  63.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  47.0  90.0  88.0  67.0  29.0  -3.0 -31.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  54.0  57.0  61.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -4.0  -6.0  -5.0  -6.0  -5.0  -3.0   2.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.7%       11.6%       15.1%
 25kt / 24h       37.1%       46.3%       41.7%
 30kt / 24h       24.4%       28.9%       26.7%
 35kt / 24h       19.9%       28.9%       24.4%
 40kt / 24h       12.6%       28.9%       20.7%
 45kt / 36h       28.5%       44.7%       36.6%
 55kt / 36h       15.5%       21.9%       18.7%
 55kt / 48h       21.3%       22.7%       22.0%
 70kt / 48h       10.9%       16.6%       13.7%
 65kt / 72h       17.7%       21.6%       19.6%