Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272021 210406 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.50    106.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  24.6  26.8  25.4  31.0  46.5  47.4  44.3  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  55.0  50.0  26.0  33.0  43.0  48.0  44.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  55.0  57.0  57.0  68.0  73.0  79.0  78.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   2.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  13.0 -27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.8%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.5%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%