Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272021 210407 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.40    105.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  29.0  25.7  28.1  36.8  49.9  45.9  26.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  66.0  69.0  67.0  68.0  74.0  72.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  50.0  26.0  34.0  19.0  71.0  67.0  49.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  57.0  58.0  60.0  65.0  68.0  70.0  64.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   2.0   7.0   7.0   9.0   2.0 -44.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  U  N VF  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        3.6%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h       10.4%       22.9%       16.7%
 30kt / 24h        5.7%        8.9%        7.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%        8.9%        5.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%        8.4%        5.3%
 45kt / 36h        6.5%       18.5%       12.5%
 55kt / 36h        3.1%        5.6%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h        4.9%        5.3%        5.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.0%        2.3%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h       11.0%        6.6%        8.8%