Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272021 210407 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00    105.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  25.8  28.1  32.8  48.4  54.7  42.2  46.3  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  26.0  34.0  33.0  43.0  63.0  68.0  -3.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  60.0  59.0  66.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   7.0   6.0   4.0   4.0 -21.0 -23.0 -77.0  N  N  N  N  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.6%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        9.1%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        3.2%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        4.8%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%