Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272021 210407 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.20    106.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  27.3  28.2  33.3  49.9  54.8  29.5  55.6  N  N  N  U VU VU  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  68.0  67.0  68.0  75.0  72.0  65.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  94.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0  12.0  80.0  68.0  83.0  63.0  28.0  40.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  61.0  62.0  65.0  69.0  66.0  66.0  68.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  10.0  11.0   7.0   9.0  -3.0  12.0  -8.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.8%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%       11.5%        7.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        3.4%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        3.3%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        3.2%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%        6.1%        4.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        2.1%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        0.6%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%        1.4%        2.5%