Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272021 210407 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.20    106.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  30.5  33.6  38.7  49.6  45.1  35.5  68.1  N  N  U  U VU VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  23.0  25.0  49.0  56.0  42.0  -8.0  21.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  56.0  63.0  68.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  69.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  13.0  12.0   5.0 -11.0 -13.0 -11.0 -29.0  N  U  U  N  F VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.5%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%