Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272021 210408 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00    106.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  33.7  38.1  45.9  51.7  40.6  34.3  86.8  N  U  U VU VU  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  65.0  67.0  69.0  73.0  63.0  55.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  36.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  25.0  49.0  44.0  53.0  26.0  -3.0  63.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  62.0  68.0  70.0  69.0  65.0  66.0  52.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  12.0   6.0   7.0 -35.0  -2.0  45.0 -34.0  U  U  N  N VF  N VU VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.2%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        5.5%        3.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.6%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%