Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272021 210408 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.00    105.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.0  42.7  49.1  50.2  39.1  35.7  52.4  57.1  U VU VU VU  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  68.0  74.0  74.0  55.0  48.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  75.8  78.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  13.0  47.0  44.0  26.0  -9.0  27.0  46.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  68.0  67.0  68.0  63.0  57.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  10.0 -14.0 -33.0 -40.0 -25.0 -24.0 -34.0  U  U VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.9%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%