Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272021 210409 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.20    107.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.3  47.9  37.4  36.1  17.6  33.8  43.8  63.0 VU VU  U  U  F  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  78.0  77.0  57.0  52.0  10.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  68.0  65.0  12.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  46.0  38.0  46.0   2.0  21.0  34.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  68.0  69.0  65.0  60.0  69.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0   4.0  19.0  12.0  -8.0  21.0  41.0  76.0  U  N VU  U  F VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.7%        3.7%        7.2%
 25kt / 24h       16.5%       20.3%       18.4%
 30kt / 24h        9.7%        8.8%        9.3%
 35kt / 24h        6.4%        8.8%        7.6%
 40kt / 24h        4.8%        6.5%        5.7%
 45kt / 36h        9.2%       22.4%       15.8%
 55kt / 36h        4.2%        8.1%        6.1%
 55kt / 48h        2.2%        4.2%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        2.5%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%