Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272021 210409 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90    109.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.4  40.4  29.2  22.5  37.6  45.3  61.0  75.9 VU  U  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  74.3  52.9   4.6  11.8  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  43.0  48.0   0.0 -14.0  59.0  75.0 103.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  64.0  66.0  62.0  56.0  65.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   7.0   5.0 -19.0 -10.0  20.0  16.0  77.0  F  N  N VF  F VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.5%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        4.5%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.4%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.4%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.4%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%