Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272021 210409 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.60    111.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  19.4  15.2  12.6  26.9  39.4  51.8  76.4  N  N  F  F  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  49.0  59.0  51.0  35.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 115.1  54.8  14.6  19.7  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  19.0  56.0  39.0  69.0  80.0  98.0 145.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  69.0  64.0  63.0  60.0  66.0  68.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   1.0  -9.0 -40.0 -85.0-152.0-140.0  N  N  N  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        6.5%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.1%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%        4.7%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        1.0%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        1.1%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        0.8%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%