Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272021 210409 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.00    112.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.7  25.9  26.8  37.8  71.4  78.6  68.5  75.0  U  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0  76.5  42.4  20.1  23.2  17.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0   2.0  -1.0  15.0  99.0 111.0 101.0  81.0  U  U  U  U  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  71.0  68.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -31.0 -47.0 -25.0 -25.0 -46.0 -14.0 -71.0  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%