Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272021 210410 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.30    113.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  36.3  42.5  43.4  60.3  71.6  91.3 121.5  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3  94.3  89.6  88.0  29.7  32.7  22.6  14.5  F  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   7.0  32.0  64.0  69.0  98.0  90.0  90.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  63.0  60.0  57.0  67.0  63.0  66.0  68.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -50.0 -28.0 -52.0 -75.0-138.0 -65.0 -56.0 236.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons