Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH282021 210411 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -26.10    169.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.1  50.2  55.5  57.9  68.5  99.1 113.5  65.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         54.8  48.7  44.1  45.9  33.4  25.7  16.6   9.2  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0   9.0  -8.0   6.0  15.0  47.0  93.0  53.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  51.0  47.0  42.0  42.0  56.0  60.0  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0  -9.0  -5.0   7.0   3.0  28.0  90.0  55.0 VF  F  F  N  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons