Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH282021 210411 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -27.50    170.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        53.6  54.1  57.9  63.1  67.9  82.7 108.4 108.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.9  48.3  50.0  44.2  36.4  30.1  23.1  23.1  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  24.0  14.0  39.0  49.0 105.0 128.0 128.0  U  U  U  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  53.0  51.0  48.0  41.0  42.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   8.0  -4.0   5.0   2.0  77.0  77.0  N  N  U  F  N  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons