Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH292021 210421 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.70     48.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  17.4  19.7  18.5  20.9  21.6  23.4  18.1  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  53.0  55.0  54.0  67.0  64.0  90.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  69.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  74.0  72.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -7.0  -9.0  -8.0  -8.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       34.1%       30.9%       32.5%
 25kt / 24h       49.6%       69.4%       59.5%
 30kt / 24h       37.4%       68.3%       52.8%
 35kt / 24h       36.1%       68.3%       52.2%
 40kt / 24h       36.1%       68.3%       52.2%
 45kt / 36h       29.2%       62.8%       46.0%
 55kt / 36h       16.0%       46.7%       31.3%
 55kt / 48h       10.8%       34.2%       22.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%       25.8%       13.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%       20.6%       10.6%