Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH292021 210421 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.00     47.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  29.5  28.4  30.3  26.0  33.1  34.1  28.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0   4.0   2.0   2.0  -2.0 -13.0   1.0   7.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  76.0  76.0  74.0  71.0  73.0  72.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -5.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        5.7%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        2.2%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        2.2%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        2.2%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%