Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH292021 210422 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.40     46.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  30.0  28.2  27.2  27.5  23.6  15.2  12.6  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  35.0  41.0  45.0  39.0  32.0  26.0   7.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  51.0  66.0  71.0  -3.0  59.0  28.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  78.0  78.0  74.0  72.0  72.0  76.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -14.0 -12.0 -10.0  -2.0  -9.0  -5.0  -3.0 VF VF  F  F  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        7.1%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.7%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.7%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        4.8%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        2.5%        5.2%        3.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        3.8%        7.8%        5.8%