Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH292021 210422 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.00     45.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  30.0  26.9  23.3  29.9  29.1  20.3  26.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  42.0  45.0  46.0  38.0  30.0  23.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3  81.2  66.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  26.0  66.0  63.0  -5.0  -4.0   5.0   3.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  73.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -11.0  -7.0  -8.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        3.4%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h       10.9%       23.4%       17.1%
 30kt / 24h        5.6%       12.9%        9.3%
 35kt / 24h        5.6%       12.9%        9.3%
 40kt / 24h        5.6%       10.9%        8.2%
 45kt / 36h        4.8%       14.1%        9.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        4.5%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        3.2%        7.8%        5.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.7%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        3.4%        1.9%