Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH292021 210423 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -8.50     43.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  20.6  24.7  20.6  17.2  17.1  25.1  25.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  38.0  36.0  34.0  28.0  20.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 112.9  82.7  46.8  46.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0 -11.0   9.0  -8.0  33.0  46.0 -20.0 -20.0  U  U  U  U  N  N VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  68.0  67.0  65.0  61.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0  -6.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        8.5%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        3.0%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        3.0%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        7.9%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        4.2%        3.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        2.1%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%