Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH292021 210424 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -7.80     39.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  19.8  16.6  16.9  18.9  18.9  18.9  18.9  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         73.0  56.7  43.4  32.8  28.7  28.7  28.7  28.7  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0   9.0  21.0  17.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  72.0  72.0  69.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -5.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons