Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012021 210217 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      6.90    131.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.1  36.6  38.9  33.4  33.5  46.2  54.2  53.2  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  63.0  61.0  60.0  57.0  55.0  59.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  74.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0 113.0 114.0 102.0  83.0 125.0 127.0  90.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  75.0  68.0  63.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   5.0   8.0   5.0   0.0  -3.0   4.0  15.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.4%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        6.1%       13.3%        9.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        3.3%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        3.3%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        2.9%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        4.5%       16.6%       10.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%        4.1%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%        5.5%        5.9%
 70kt / 48h        2.8%        3.3%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h        6.8%        2.7%        4.7%