Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012021 210218 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.00    132.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.8  38.1  33.0  31.7  44.2  52.1  53.7  48.8  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  53.0  54.0  57.0  64.0  69.0  49.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0  70.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   114.0 110.0 135.0 113.0 102.0  94.0  62.0  53.0  F  F VF  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  70.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   8.0   8.0  13.0  -2.0   1.0   6.0  14.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        1.2%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        6.5%       12.4%        9.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        3.2%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        3.2%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        3.1%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        3.5%        9.8%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        2.0%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.0%        2.9%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        1.4%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%        1.2%        2.2%