Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012021 210218 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.30    132.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.2  33.1  29.4  38.8  47.5  54.2  54.4  47.3  U  U  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  58.0  35.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  87.7 117.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   110.0 135.0 113.0 123.0 113.0  68.0  54.0  43.0  F VF  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  63.0  64.0  57.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   8.0  13.0   0.0  -1.0   4.0  12.0   8.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.1%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        5.7%       11.0%        8.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        2.6%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        2.6%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        2.6%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%        7.7%        5.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        1.4%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        2.0%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.9%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        3.8%        1.0%        2.4%