Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012021 210218 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.20    131.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.9  34.7  40.8  41.3  47.6  44.3  47.3  48.3  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  59.0  58.0  59.0  56.0  60.0   0.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  60.9  89.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   121.0 125.0  92.0 105.0  91.0  44.0  17.0  46.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  71.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  69.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.0%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%        8.9%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.2%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        2.2%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        1.8%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        5.3%        3.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        1.8%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%