Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012021 210219 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.20    131.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  37.4  42.6  50.3  55.7  40.3  38.5  42.1  U  U VU VU VU  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  55.0  57.0  58.0  61.0  49.0   1.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  56.7  86.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   139.0 118.0 130.0 117.0  85.0  71.0  73.0  42.0 VF  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  77.0  75.0  76.0  78.0  74.0  74.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   7.0   3.0   6.0   7.0  15.0  14.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.3%        3.9%        5.6%
 25kt / 24h       15.6%       19.1%       17.4%
 30kt / 24h        7.1%        7.3%        7.2%
 35kt / 24h        4.6%        7.3%        5.9%
 40kt / 24h        4.6%        6.1%        5.3%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%        8.2%        5.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        1.7%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        2.6%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%