Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012021 210219 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.20    129.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.1  41.5  47.2  52.0  50.1  41.8  39.9  39.2  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  52.0  38.0  26.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 105.7  97.4  93.5 103.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   118.0 130.0 117.0 118.0  62.0  69.0  52.0  51.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  68.0  73.0  71.0  67.0  64.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   4.0   7.0   4.0  13.0  20.0  11.0   8.0  U  N  N  N  U VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        1.6%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        6.3%        8.9%        7.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        2.6%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        2.6%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        2.1%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        3.5%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%