Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012021 210219 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      6.20    130.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.9  36.7  47.9  50.1  42.0  36.8  28.8  25.4  U  U VU VU VU  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  59.0  57.0  58.0  48.0   5.0   5.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  95.5  64.4  77.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   123.0 137.0 140.0 117.0  92.0 114.0 112.0 102.0  F VF VF  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  73.0  71.0  69.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   5.0   3.0   4.0  12.0  18.0  16.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.5%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        3.0%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        0.5%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        0.5%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        0.5%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        0.4%        0.6%