Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012021 210219 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      6.10    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.6  48.8  49.6  42.2  40.8  38.9  39.9  32.9  U VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  56.0  55.0  60.0  31.0   0.0  35.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  81.0  68.6 107.9  99.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   137.0 140.0 118.0 109.0  86.0  96.0 105.0  79.0 VF VF  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  65.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   4.0  10.0  16.0  24.0   7.0   8.0  N  N  N  U  U VU  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.3%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        2.1%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        0.4%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        0.4%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        0.4%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        0.2%        0.6%