Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012021 210220 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      6.80    131.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.0  35.4  30.3  26.9  22.3  19.3  15.3  18.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  60.0  65.0  75.0  62.0   0.0   0.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 118.6  89.6  80.8  97.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   166.0 122.0 118.0 121.0  35.0  53.0  53.0  -5.0 VF  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  77.0  74.0  72.0  75.0  72.0  68.0  62.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  10.0   9.0   9.0  15.0   9.0  11.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%        1.1%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        0.3%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        9.8%        1.4%        5.6%