Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012021 210222 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.40    125.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  26.1  22.1  27.0  30.6  25.0  25.1  22.8  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   1.0   1.0   6.0   4.0   1.0  23.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         88.6 104.4 104.4  96.1 108.0 111.6 109.8 108.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   141.0 132.0  51.0  -3.0 -43.0 -22.0 -28.0 -42.0 VF  F  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  73.0  64.0  57.0  55.0  50.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  18.0   9.0   9.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  U VU  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons