Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012021 210222 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30    122.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  21.3  21.2  20.6  16.0  15.6  11.8  10.9  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   5.0   3.0   1.0   3.0   7.0   6.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.4 113.0 111.2 111.2 113.0 118.5 120.5 116.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  -5.0 -14.0 -29.0 -21.0 -22.0 -25.0 -17.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  59.0  56.0  51.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  46.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.6%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        1.0%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        0.9%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        3.2%        2.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons