Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022021 210414 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.50    137.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.8  30.2  29.3  31.2  44.1  47.3  53.3  50.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   92.0  91.0  94.0  96.0  85.0  63.0  46.0  45.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   113.0 109.0  79.0  64.0  73.0 112.0 123.0 145.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  75.0  75.0  76.0  76.0  80.0  78.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -7.0  -3.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.1%        6.2%        6.7%
 25kt / 24h       32.2%       43.0%       37.6%
 30kt / 24h       15.5%       21.0%       18.2%
 35kt / 24h        7.1%       21.0%       14.1%
 40kt / 24h        3.9%       17.2%       10.6%
 45kt / 36h       15.1%       38.6%       26.9%
 55kt / 36h        7.2%       15.8%       11.5%
 55kt / 48h       15.3%       11.4%       13.3%
 70kt / 48h        7.7%        9.7%        8.7%
 65kt / 72h       15.5%       10.7%       13.1%